Samsung at 3.9x and SK Hynix at 4.3x on 2028 consensus means the market doubts the duration of those earnings, not their existence. This post works through whether semis are cyclical, which multiple belongs on which EPS, whether the current debate shakes 2028 EPS or only the multiple, why 2029 is not too distant, and where 2026-2028 cash actually goes, then computes probability-weighted fair values for all three names using FCFE plus a normalized terminal value.
KOSPI slid 8.8% over five sessions to 6,821 as Korea stays Bear while the US holds Neutral; APR, Korea Kolmar, and Seegene lead today's quality screener sweep.
A source-checked analysis of Kimi K3's 2.8T sparse MoE, Kimi Linear, Attention Residuals, API pricing, and the implications for NVIDIA, AMD, HBM, server DRAM, enterprise SSDs, and US Big Tech.
The semiconductor bull and bear no longer argue over whether AI demand exists. The real questions are whether demand outruns supply and efficiency gains, whether the lags between price, orders, construction and monetization are narrowing, and whether incremental revenue survives depreciation and cost of capital to reach shareholder cash flow. This post decomposes that structure through four physical clocks and one stock-price clock, shows how both sides read identical evidence in opposite directions, and sets the gates that would change the call. The central path is a fundamental bull coexisting with a valuation bear.
KOSPI plunged 6.1% on July 16 as Korean memory giants led a broad risk-off selldown, even as TSMC's blowout Q2 results signaled AI chip demand remains intact.
A fact check of Apple's reported CXMT DRAM tests across technology, cost, regulation, and supply-chain risk. The plausible path is limited use in standard devices sold in China, with negotiating leverage potentially mattering more than direct volumes.
IBM's preliminary Q2 results on July 14 missed consensus and the stock fell more than 17%. One of the three stated reasons is decisive: in the last few weeks of June, clients shifted capex toward servers, storage and memory to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases. The same day, Ericsson warned on margin pressure from AI-driven component costs. Together the two prints confirm memory tightness through end-customer behavior, while also showing the cost is paid by other IT spending and margins.
We re-read 2,893 messages and 308 source documents across 18 Telegram channels from July 1 to 14, 2026. Nanya's price-driven earnings, revenue diffusion across Taiwan's AI supply chain, Meta and Brookfield's power investments, Fermi's financing, Korea's single-stock leverage products, and SK Hynix ADR are synthesized into a single market structure.
Three Hana Securities reports synthesized into one frame. The supply gap created by the big-three's shift to HBM and DDR5 is spilling into package substrates (Daeduck Electronics, Simmtech, Haesung DS), eSSD controllers (ASICLAND, FADU), and legacy memory (GigaDevice). It is evidence that the memory boom has broadened beyond HBM, and this post lays out the verification checkpoint for each segment. This is a report summary, not investment advice.