A scenario-based valuation of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix using 2028E net income, MarketScreener estimates, supply discipline, HBM contracts and memory-cycle base rates.
A value-added map of one dollar of AI token revenue, from model companies and cloud platforms to GPUs, memory, foundries, power, and workflow applications.
KOSPI tumbled 4.9% on July 8 as Korean AI-power and defense stocks led a broad selloff, even as memory chip prices hit multi-year highs. What foreign flows reveal.
We separate Samsung Electronics' 2Q26 provisional operating profit of KRW 89.4 trillion, DRAM and NAND price surges, hyperscaler CapEx, AI server supply chain signals, and foreign selling, interest rates, ASML, and TSMC event risks. The conclusion is to strengthen the investment thesis, undermine short-term timing, hold strong and freeze additional purchases.
Samsung's 2Q26 preliminary earnings were strong, but the stock fell 6.9% on the announcement day and another 6.3% the next day. We compare that two-day path with 17 NVIDIA post-earnings reactions. The closest analogue is not the August 2024 sell-on quarter, but NVIDIA's February 2026 Q4 FY26 reaction. The lesson is simple: a strong print was not enough. The rebound required a catalyst that directly killed the fear behind the selloff.
On the same day, Kiwoom cut Samsung's target to KRW 390k and KB raised it to KRW 600k. They look contradictory, but by the numbers they don't refute each other. Kiwoom talks about the deceleration of the earnings growth RATE (second derivative); KB talks about the absolute LEVEL of earnings. Both are true. The provision adjustment is the crux — of the incentive provision in Q2's reported OP of 89.4tn, only ~KRW 5tn is genuinely one-off (a retroactive Q1 top-up; provisions recur in Q3 too), and normalizing just that puts Q3 QoQ near +16–19%, not the headline +26% or +4.7%. TrendForce's Q2-to-Q3 slowdown in contract-price growth, and a ~6.7x 2026E P/E at the KRW 296,000 close — this post minimizes buy/sell calls and decomposes both reports' reasoning and data.
KOSPI plunged 4.91% on July 7 despite Samsung's blockbuster Q2 earnings, as leveraged and passive fund unwinding triggered broad risk-off selling across Korea's AI trade.
A detailed read-through from Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle funding activity to hyperscaler AI capex, financing escalation, component inflation, and the memory/HBM bottleneck.
A scenario map for Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon's late-July earnings calls, focused on 2027 AI infrastructure capex, memory pricing, server BOM memory share, Micron's SCA contracts and Samsung Electronics' 2Q26 preliminary result.