1. Macro Dashboard
| Indicator | Level | 5-Day Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,579.5 | −3.5% (−240.5 pts) | ⬇ Weak |
| KOSDAQ | 790.2 | −5.3% (−44.1 pts) | ⬇ Weak |
| USD/KRW | 1,357 | −1.7% | ✅ Won firming |
| VIX | 15.4 | +3.0% | Stable |
| Brent | $96.5 | +6.7% | ⬆ Rising |
| US 10Y | 4.80% | +12 bps | ⬆ Rising |
| DXY | 99.2 | −0.2% | Flat |
Regime Verdict — Korea: Bear · US: Neutral. The Korea Bear reading is driven by growth_risk: broad index weakness across both KOSPI and KOSDAQ over five sessions, not a single-sector shock. The US regime holds Neutral with no dominant pressure driver reaching threshold.
2. Market Wrap
Source note: No same-day KR close briefing or market snapshot was included in today’s data package. Session character below is inferred from 5-day macro signals and derivatives/passive flow data. Treat as context, not a confirmed close-of-day read.
The dominant theme heading into September 3 is sustained index-level pressure on Korean equities. KOSPI has shed roughly 240 points and KOSDAQ 44 points over the past five sessions — a pace sufficient to flip Korea’s regime model to Bear. The driver is broad growth risk: participation in the decline is wide, rather than concentrated in one pocket of the market.
Energy is the clearest countervailing force. Brent crude’s 6.7% five-day gain to $96.5/bbl injects a direct earnings tailwind for Korean refining and energy names. If that move holds, margin expansion for domestic refiners becomes a near-term re-rating candidate — exactly the kind of setup the Cycle Rerating screener is designed to flag.
Currency is a relative bright spot. Won strengthened 1.7% to 1,357 against the dollar over the period. That cushions Korea’s import costs and signals some moderation in broad EM risk aversion, even as the index weakens.
The derivatives picture adds nuance. As of August 28, futures basis came in at a healthy +2.30, and ETF net creation ran +2,605억원 — passive money was still flowing in even as program selling hit −14,954억원. Open interest held at 46,385 contracts. The divergence between positive basis and heavy program outflows is the key signal to watch: if basis flips negative in the next session, it would mark a shift from hedging-driven selling toward outright deleveraging.
US 10-year yields rose 12 bps to 4.80%, adding headwind to Korea’s rate-sensitive growth stocks. With the US in Neutral rather than Bear, the cross-market setup is not a full-risk-off signal — but it does argue for selectivity. High-multiple KR growth names face a tougher environment; quality compounders with strong free cash flow generation and genuine earnings leverage stand to differentiate.
3. Quality Re-Rating Candidates
Screener data status: No KR META SCREENER, KR Quality Compounder, KR Smart Money Quality, or KR Cycle Rerating output was included in today’s source package. Candidate ranking cannot be completed for this session. The screener framework and priority logic are noted below for the next available dataset.
Framework priority (for reference):
| Tier | Screener Combination | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quality Compounder + Smart Money Quality + Cycle Rerating | Good business + institutional sponsorship + earnings leverage being repriced |
| 2 | Quality Compounder + Smart Money Quality | Quality confirmed, smart money entering |
| 3 | Quality Compounder + Cycle Rerating | Quality foundation, re-rating catalyst present |
| 4 | Smart Money Quality + Smart Money Earnings / PEAD | Flow-driven, earnings support present |
In a Korea Bear regime, the editorial filter tightens considerably. Single-screener names fall off the candidate list almost entirely. Only genuine 2-screener overlaps — and especially 3-screener hits where quality, institutional flow, and an earnings or cycle catalyst all converge — justify prominent placement when the index is in active drawdown.
Themes to watch when screeners refresh:
Energy-linked names. Brent at $96.5 and rising is a direct catalyst for Korean refining and upstream plays. A name in this space that also clears the Quality Compounder filter (ROE above 15%, operating margin expanding) and shows Smart Money flow would be a Tier 1 candidate — worth leading the next session’s analysis.
Won-sensitive exporters. KRW firming at 1,357 benefits exporters with USD-denominated revenue. Look for names where earnings consensus has not yet caught up to the currency move — that lag is a classic setup for cycle re-rating.
ETF-basket accumulation. With +2,605억원 in net ETF creation despite the broader drawdown, some names inside major KOSPI and KOSDAQ ETF baskets are being systematically accumulated. These tend to surface in the Smart Money Quality screener when institutional buying is concentrated enough to register.
Screener candidates will be ranked and published once the full meta-screener package is available for this session.