Samsung Electronics recorded the world's largest quarterly operating profit. Signals and noise poured in today.

Context This is a follow-up to the Samsung 2Q26 preview, Micron FY3Q26 review, NVIDIA earnings analogue work, late-July Big Tech earnings-call scenario map, and Big Tech financing relay note. Related hubs are the Exclusive Analysis Hub and the AI HBM Hub.

TL;DR

Samsung Electronics presented provisional sales of 171 trillion won and operating profit of 89.4 trillion won for the second quarter of 2026. Based on Samsung Electronics’ official newsroom, this is a very large number compared to the operating profit of 57.23 trillion won in the previous quarter and 4.68 trillion won in the same period last year. Looking at memory prices, AI server demand, hyperscaler investment, and HBM4 ramp-up together, the quality of Samsung Electronics’ investment argument has actually become stronger.

However, the stock price moved in the opposite direction. Based on local DB, Samsung Electronics closed at 296,000 won on July 7 and 277,500 won on July 8. On July 7, foreigners net sold about 1.82 trillion won, and on July 8, they sold about 874.1 billion won. Individuals made net purchases of approximately 2.32 trillion won and 584.7 billion won, respectively. Although good performance was achieved, foreign and programmatic supply and demand saw peak-out, interest rates, exchange rates, and overcrowding of positions before profit levels.

The conclusion of this article is as follows.

To sum it up in one line, the information released today is not “Samsung Electronics has worsened,” but is closer to “the market has already had too many good numbers, and now demands the next number and the quality of supply and demand.”

1. Why should we separate signal and noise?

Today’s data is not read in only one direction. Numbers are good. However, stock prices and supply and demand are bad. Memory price comments are strong. However, spot trading takes a breather on some items. Hyperscaler CapEx continues to grow. However, long-term interest rates in the United States are also high.

On days like this, looking at only one side is wrong. “It’s the world’s largest quarterly operating profit, so you must buy it” is also hasty, and “the cycle is over because it fell behind despite good performance” is also hasty.

Therefore, this article divides the data into four layers.

The key is to separate the profit direction and the stock price direction. Samsung Electronics’ main business profit direction has improved. However, the drivers of short-term stock prices were not profits, but supply and demand and the discount rate.

2. Officially confirmed values: Sales 171 trillion won, operating profit 89.4 trillion won

[Fact] Samsung Electronics announced its second quarter provisional results through its official newsroom on July 7, 2026. Consolidated sales are approximately 171 trillion won and operating profit is approximately 89.4 trillion won. According to Korean disclosure regulations, the company presented a median value rather than a range, and explained that the actual estimated range was KRW 170 trillion to KRW 172 trillion in sales and KRW 89.3 trillion to KRW 89.5 trillion in operating profit. Source: Samsung Electronics Official Newsroom

This number is extremely unusual for a single quarter’s operating profit. The expression “world’s largest” may be subject to consideration depending on the comparison target and accounting standards, but it is clear that it is an overwhelmingly large number, at least compared to the normal quarterly profits of global mega-caps.

What is important is not the operating profit itself of 89.4 trillion won, but the quality within it. The interpretation presented in the attached research is as follows.

[Inference] Just looking at the reported OP of KRW 89.4 trillion is strong, but if DRAM and NAND prices rose significantly at the same time and there was an effect of provisioning, the strength of the main business may be stronger than the reported number. This point is the most important signal of Samsung Electronics’ thesis.

3. Stock price and supply and demand: Foreigners sold after good numbers

Despite good performance, the stock price fell. The prices and supply and demand based on local DB are as follows.

The source is the local Kiwoom-based prices_daily and investor_flow_daily tables. On July 8, the foreign ownership rate was recorded at 46.58%.

The message of this table is clear. The market did not believe that Samsung Electronics’ profits had weakened, but that it was a structure in which foreigners reduced their risk and individuals accepted it in stocks that had already risen. On July 7, foreigners and institutions sold together, and individuals bought significantly. Institutions received some on July 8, but foreign selling continued.

Therefore, today’s judgment is “performance is good, but supply and demand are bad.” It is not a basis for selling, but a basis for freezing additional purchases.

4. Four axes of Samsung Electronics thesis

The argument for investing in Samsung Electronics can be organized into four axes.

Among these, the key ones are numbers 1 to 3. Foundry is a valuation upside option. For the stock price to hold up now, the foundry does not need to improve immediately. Investments in memory, eSSD, and hyperscaler alone explain the strength of profits. However, additional rerating requires reducing the foundry deficit and confirming HBM4 and HBM4E customers.

5. Signal 1: Legacy DRAM and NAND prices are stronger than expected

The most important bullish signal in the attached research is the memory price trend summarized in the comments of Meritz Securities Commissioner Kim Seon-woo. Since the full text of the original data was not directly compared, this article classifies it as “market comment-based interpretation.” Still, numbers and direction are important in interpreting Samsung Electronics’ investment argument.

The key point is that seasonal demand for the second half of the year began to arrive in July, and while B2B server demand was absorbing supply, B2C smartphone and PC customers also began to feel pressure to secure supplies.

Legacy DRAM

Legacy NAND

Supply Structure

[Inference] If this data is correct, Samsung Electronics’ bull case is wider than SK Hynix’s HBM pure exposure. Samsung Electronics has a discount factor for being behind in HBM, but it also receives price increases for general DRAM, server DRAM, eSSD, NAND, and legacy products. In other words, “the frame of disparaging Samsung Electronics based solely on HBM” is weakened.

6. Signal 2: It is difficult to say that AI CapEx has decreased yet

Hyperscaler investment also supports Samsung Electronics’ thesis. According to numbers shared by Goldman Sachs charts, hyperscaler CapEx grows as follows:

The forecast for 2027 is about 4.4 times that of 2024. This number is also in line with the bond and capital increase flows covered in Big Tech Financing Relay. Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are even using corporate bonds and stock issuances to invest in AI infrastructure at a level that is difficult to cover with internal cash flow alone.

What is important for Samsung Electronics is that “AI CapEx does not end at GPU.” Investing in an AI data center is not just about purchasing GPUs. Server DRAM, HBM, eSSD, NAND, substrate, power, network, and cooling will also increase.

[Inference] If hyperscaler CapEx increases by 2027, it is difficult to conclude that Samsung Electronics’ memory profits will immediately decline from the peak in one quarter. The problem is not whether there is no demand, but how much the market has already reflected that demand in the price.

7. Signal 3: AI server supply chain is not yet broken

Taiwan AI server supply chain data included in the attached research is also important.

This data does not fit the claim that “demand for AI servers has declined.” If server OEMs, ODMs, and substrate companies still show strong shipments and sales, memory demand is unlikely to disappear easily.

물론 이 데이터만으로 삼성전자 실적을 바로 산출할 수는 없다. But the direction is clear. AI 서버 공급망은 아직 멈추지 않았다. 오히려 GPU, ASIC, 서버, 기판, 메모리, storage가 함께 움직이는 구조다.

8. 소음 1: TrendForce spot 데이터는 약하지만 붕괴는 아니다

There are also opposing signs. TrendForce spot market comments were summarized as an atmosphere where trading was quiet and buyers were waiting.

Looking at this table, it is excessive to say, “Memory prices have fallen.” 대부분은 상승 또는 보합이고, 일부 eTT 품목만 하락했다. 더 정확한 표현은 “거래는 한산하고, spot 시장은 가격 발견 중”이다.

The important distinction is spot and contract.

삼성전자 thesis의 핵심은 spot이 아니다. 핵심은 contract 가격, server DRAM, HBM, eSSD 주문, hyperscaler 수요다. 진짜 위험 신호는 spot 거래 부진 자체가 아니라 다음 네 가지가 함께 나오는 경우다.

1. Contract price cut
2. Slowdown in server DRAM orders
3. HBM·eSSD order slowdown
4. 주요 고객의 inventory correction 코멘트

Currently, all four have not been confirmed. Therefore, it is correct to view TrendForce data not as bear confirmation but as a signal of anticipation digestion and price discovery.

9. Noise 2: Morgan Stanley peak logic is only partially correct

Morgan Stanley-type peak thesis should not be ignored either. The key point is that the speed of improvement in memory indicators is approaching its peak, and inventory normalization and price increases may slow down. AI trade 안에서는 반도체보다 Alphabet, Amazon 같은 AI cloud 쪽을 선호한다는 관점도 제시됐다.

This claim is partly correct. This is especially important for short-term stock prices.

However, extending this to the logic of structural selling is weak. There is too much opposing data.

[Inference] The Morgan Stanley peak thesis is valid as a warning, “Don’t chase now.” However, the basis for “discarding Samsung Electronics’ thesis” is insufficient.

10. Noise 3: ASML and TSMC are high bar events

The next gateway is ASML and TSMC. ASML’s official financial calendar displays Q2 2026 financial results on July 15, 2026. TSMC’s official IR page announces the 2Q26 earnings conference on July 16, 2026. Source: ASML financial calendar, TSMC 2Q26 quarterly results

The problem is that even if good performance is achieved, it is impossible to know whether the stock price will rise. Samsung Electronics’ 2Q26 provisional results are already a preview. If the high bar is high, even good numbers seem lacking.

Here’s what to look for in ASML and TSMC:

As Mizuho commented, the fact that Samsung Electronics’ stock price fell despite its good preliminary results shows the possibility of a global IT momentum shift. So ASML and TSMC are events that see “how the market digests good numbers” rather than “confirming the numbers.”

11. Noise 4: Press multiple for interest rates and exchange rates

Even if Samsung Electronics’ thesis is good, the stock price may be depressed if the discount rate increases. The interest rate environment based on the attached research is as follows.

These numbers do not undermine the demand thesis. However, PER can be lowered. A typical section where stock prices fall despite strong profits is “the section where EPS rises but the multiple falls faster.”

The same goes for exchange rates. A weak won may be beneficial to Samsung Electronics’ performance. However, from a foreigner’s perspective, it increases foreign exchange losses, foreign exchange hedging costs, and the risk of Korea’s share. The foreign ownership rate of 46.58% and continuous selling on July 8 are signals that this part needs to be checked.

12. Noise 5: Foreign outflow and leverage piping

The attached research includes comments on foreign outflow and leverage piping based on Bloomberg and Telegram. The figures presented here, such as foreign outflow in the Korean market since the beginning of the year -$100.16 billion, foreign securities outflow in March -$36.55 billion, and USD/KRW 1,554 won, need to be compared with official statistics by collection range. Therefore, in this article, only directional signals are used.

Still, the message is important.

[Inference] The short-term plunge is more likely to be the result of memory peak-out betting, liquidation of leverage positions, and reduction of foreign risks, rather than the collapse of Samsung Electronics’ main business. However, we cannot conclude that this is not a structural risk. We need to check whether foreign spot sales stop.

13. Korean market performance is also not good

This is not just a problem for Samsung Electronics. As of 06:10 on July 8, the local KR integrated screener classified the Korean market as NEUTRAL.

Newly passed stocks were APR, Handsome, GS Retail, Hana Financial Group, and KT&G. Stocks that left included TSE, YG-1, and Samsung Electronics.

13 passed the quality compounder screen, and at the top were Gigabis, SK Hynix, VM, AP, and PSK. Only three companies, APR, Seegene, and Kolmar Korea, passed the smart money + quality condition.

The meaning of this data is simple. Market breadth is weak. Even if Samsung Electronics’ thesis is good, it is not widely accepted by the entire Korean market. In this environment, additional purchases should not be made by reporting only profit data. We need to see whether supply and demand and market width return.

14. Then what should I do?

The current conclusion is “strong holding, freeze on additional purchases.”

There are four additional purchase conditions:

1. Foreign spot sales of Samsung Electronics are slowing down, and programmatic selling pressure is decreasing.
2. ASML bookings and TSMC AI/HPC·CoWoS·CapEx comments do not indicate a slowdown in AI investment.
3. DS core profit, DRAM·NAND contract price, HBM4·HBM4E customer progress, and eSSD orders are confirmed in Samsung Electronics IR.
4. The sluggish spot market does not spread to contract price cuts or a slowdown in server DRAM orders.

The conditions for invalidation are as follows:

15. Conclusion

Samsung Electronics’ 2Q26 provisional performance is not a number that weakens the thesis. Rather, it is the opposite. Operating profit of KRW 89.4 trillion, DRAM ASP +47%, NAND ASP +66%, soaring legacy memory prices, hyperscaler CapEx continuing until 2027, and AI server supply chain sales all strengthen the case for investing in Samsung Electronics.

However, today’s stock prices and supply and demand have damaged the timing. Foreigners sold, and individuals received. Interest rates are high, exchange rates are a burden, and high bar events such as ASML and TSMC remain. Market width is also weak.

So the conclusion is clear.

Samsung Electronics has not become worse. However, today’s market called for “the next good number and supply and demand to believe in that number” rather than “a good number.” Now is not the time to abandon the thesis, but rather to protect the position, stop making additional purchases, and check for the next gateway.

Basis classification

Evidence Ledger