Semiconductor Suppliers Rallied Sharply, but Only a Fraction of Large-Cap Selling Followed: Reviewing Entry Order Across the Value Chain

Fri, 09 Oct 2026 23:30:00 +0900

On October 8, Samsung Electronics announced preliminary third-quarter operating profit of 107.4 trillion won. Quarterly operating profit exceeded 100 trillion won for the first time.¹ Yet the KOSPI fell 2.62% that day, and Samsung Electronics fell 2.42%. Some semiconductor suppliers hit all-time highs on the same day.

The market is circulating the view that investors are selling Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to rotate into suppliers. Price action supports that view. From September 8 to October 8, the median return for 129 semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment stocks was 27%, while Samsung Electronics fell 2.8% and SK hynix fell 6.2%. But capital did not move at the same scale as prices.

This analysis asks one question: should investors follow the stocks that have risen, or look elsewhere first? Here is the conclusion.

The suppliers rally is real, but it is a price re-rating backed by only part of the money leaving large caps. The first place to examine is FC-BGA substrates, not equipment stocks that have already made new highs. Pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds accumulated these substrates over a month and did not turn to net selling even during the two sharp down days. Samsung Electro-Mechanics is at the center of this group.

Very little of the money leaving large caps went to suppliers. Since September 28, foreign investors and institutions net sold 16.1 trillion won of Samsung Electronics, Samsung Electronics preferred shares, and SK hynix. The 125 supplier stocks received 1.0 trillion won. Their smaller market capitalization meant this amount could still move prices sharply.
Buyers of suppliers are split into two camps. Foreign investors bought equipment stocks at record highs. Pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds sold those same stocks and bought less-risen names such as Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Daeduck Electronics. Over October 7 and 8, these domestic institutional investors net sold 687.1 billion won of suppliers.
Share buybacks that supported large caps are nearing completion. Samsung Electronics appears to have reached its disclosed limit around October 6, while SK hynix is estimated to have completed 82% of its planned purchases by share count. If the index falls further, suppliers are unlikely to rise on their own.
Suppliers’ earnings ultimately depend on memory earnings. If memory prices turn down, capacity expansion is the first thing to slow. Reducing Samsung Electronics and buying equipment stocks means taking the same risk at a higher multiple.

The analysis uses closing prices as of October 8. The Korean market was closed on October 9 for Hangul Day. Korean prices are exchange daily bars collected independently. Investor net buying is an estimate based on Kiwoom Securities data. Detailed investor flows for small caps are available for all stocks only from September 17, so the analysis uses data from that date onward.

The 129-stock supplier universe was classified directly for this analysis. Aggregate flows cover 125 stocks, excluding large-cap Samsung Electro-Mechanics, LG Innotek, Doosan, and SKC. Pension funds, investment trusts (asset-management funds), and private funds are grouped as “pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds.”

Prices moved, but only about 6% of large-cap selling proceeds followed

Net buying by foreign investors and institutions from September 28 to October 8 shows a clear difference. Stock performance over the same period is also shown, using the September 23 close, the last trading day before the Chuseok holiday.

Group	Net buying by foreign investors and institutions	Combined market capitalization	As a share of market capitalization	Equal-weighted price change since September 23
Samsung Electronics, Samsung Electronics preferred shares, and SK hynix	-16.1 trillion won	About 2,915 trillion won	-0.55%	-9.9%
125 supplier stocks	+1.0 trillion won	About 215 trillion won	+0.48%	+13.5%

Money flowing into suppliers was about 6% of the money leaving large caps. Because suppliers have smaller market capitalizations, their prices rose an average of 13% when inflows equaled 0.5% of market capitalization. Prices were lifted not by a large rotation, but by marginal buying in a smaller market.

Foreign investors were the sellers of large caps. Share buybacks and individual investors absorbed the supply. Net buying by investor group in Samsung Electronics, Samsung Electronics preferred shares, and SK hynix over the same period was as follows.

Investor group	Net buying, September 28 to October 8
Foreign investors	-12.7 trillion won
Institutions	-3.4 trillion won
Individual investors	+5.7 trillion won
Other corporations (including share buybacks)	+10.4 trillion won

Most of the net buying by other corporations appears to have come from share buybacks by the two companies. On August 21, Samsung Electronics approved an on-market purchase of 15 trillion won, or 53.28 million shares, through November 21.² Cumulative net buying by other corporations reached 55.62 million shares from August 20 through October 8, already above the authorized limit. Daily net buying fell from 272.1 billion won on October 6 to -5.6 billion won on October 7 and 36.1 billion won on October 8.

SK hynix approved a purchase of 40 trillion won, or 24.07 million shares, on August 19, through November 19.³ Cumulative net buying by other corporations was 19.85 million shares, or 82% of the limit. Daily purchases fell from around 600,000 shares in early October to around 400,000. At this pace, the limit would be exhausted from mid-October to early late October. This is an estimate that treats net buying by other corporations as share buybacks. The acquisition results report has not yet been released.

Testing market narratives against the numbers

We checked recurring claims in recent market commentary on a consistent basis. Record highs are determined from adjusted prices and exchange daily bars since August 2014.

Market narrative	Assessment	Numbers
Some stocks rise even as the index falls	Holds only among suppliers	On October 8, KOSPI -2.62% and KOSDAQ -0.69%. Of 1,324 stocks with trading value above 300 million won, 30% rose; 67% of the 129 supplier stocks rose
Before leveraged products blew up, investors sold KOSDAQ and bought “Samsung and SK hynix”	Supported	From May 1 to June 22, individual investors bought +38.7 trillion won, brokerage firms’ own accounts and ETF liquidity providers +17.2 trillion won, and foreign investors sold -56.3 trillion won in Samsung Electronics, its preferred shares, and SK hynix
Investors are now selling “Samsung and SK hynix” and moving into suppliers	Directionally right, scale differs	From September 17 to October 8, foreign investors sold -13.3 trillion won in “Samsung and SK hynix,” while other corporations including buybacks bought +18.6 trillion won. Foreign investors bought +0.48 trillion won and institutions +0.98 trillion won in 125 suppliers stocks
A wave of all-time highs is emerging	Narrowly supported	Of 22 stocks at all-time highs from September 18 to October 8, 16 were among the 129 suppliers stocks. The supplier median was -36% from its all-time high
Stocks making new highs are pulling back with long upper shadows	Supported	On October 8, the five new-high stocks closed a median 4.3% below their intraday highs. On October 7, six of nine stocks fell more than 3% from their highs
There is no reason to rush ahead of the holiday	Supported	During the market holiday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by more than 3% on October 8 in the US

The “single-stock leverage episode” refers to single-stock 2x leveraged products on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, listed on May 27, which amplified losses during the June-July selloff. The KOSPI fell 4.9% on July 7, 10.8% on July 28, and 6.0% on July 29. On July 16, financial regulators announced measures to raise the required cash deposit from 10 million won to at least 30 million won and temporarily suspend new listings.⁴ One tally puts losses from May 27 to September 23 at more than 35% for Samsung-linked leveraged products and 49~53% for SK hynix-linked products.⁵

Samsung Electronics fell from a June 18 close of 362,500 won to 207,000 won on July 30. SK hynix fell from 2,919,000 won on June 22 to 1,322,000 won on July 30. The current question is who will lead the rebound that began at the July 30 low. No new event of the same kind has been confirmed from late September through early October.

Rebound from the July 30 low varies widely by chain

We compared each chain’s equal-weighted basket return from the low and its position relative to the previous high. The previous high is each basket’s peak from April through June.

Group	Change from July 30 low	Versus previous high
Samsung Electronics	+27%	-28%
SK hynix	+27%	-42%
Test components (sockets and probe cards)	+118%	+18%
OSAT packaging	+165%	+10%
Back-end equipment	+100%	-1%
Test equipment	+179%	-4%
Memory substrates	+119%	-6%
Front-end equipment	+78%	-6%
High-layer-count printed circuit boards (MLB)	+96%	-6%
Consumable parts	+73%	-8%
Process materials	+62%	-19%
FC-BGA and modules (Samsung Electro-Mechanics, LG Innotek, Daeduck Electronics)	+73%	-36%

Samsung Electronics has recovered 35% of its summer decline, and SK hynix 22%. Test components and OSAT packaging have exceeded their previous highs. Process materials and FC-BGA remain well below them.

Different variables are driving prices even within semiconductors. For large-cap memory stocks, the key variable is price. Earnings are at record levels, and the debate has shifted to the pace and duration of price increases. The stocks trade at 3.9 times 2027 estimated earnings for Samsung Electronics and 3.8 times for SK hynix.

For suppliers, the key variables are volume and capacity expansion. Memory companies’ profits are moving into expansion and utilization. Supplier stocks have risen to 14~20 times 2027 estimated earnings, the median by chain. For GPUs, ASICs, and CoWoS, the questions are compute demand and financing. Demand exceeds supply, and market attention has shifted to OpenAI revenue, hyperscaler borrowing, and interest rates in the 5% range.

Each chain has a different market narrative and flow of capital

The price changes below run from September 8 to October 8. Investor flows are cumulative from September 17 to October 8.

For GPUs and ASICs, financing is the issue, not demand

On August 26, Nvidia reported FY27 second-quarter revenue of 96.2 billion US dollars, up 106% year over year. Its third-quarter guidance was 108.0 billion US dollars, and it gave an initial FY28 growth outlook of about 70%.⁶ Vera Rubin began volume shipments in August. Broadcom was reported to have cited AI semiconductor revenue of about 115 billion US dollars in FY27 and 230 billion US dollars in FY28.⁷

What has changed is how profits are distributed. Nvidia’s gross margin is expected to fall from 74% to 71~72% in the fourth quarter because of memory prices. Some pricing power has shifted from GPUs to memory. Nvidia said it would invest about 50 billion US dollars in frontier labs and provide credit support. Its chief financial officer said directly that some might call this circular financing.⁶

Stock returns are Nvidia +2%, AMD +23%, Broadcom -2%, and Marvell +22%. Nvidia and AMD made their highest levels since June 2025 on October 6. On October 8, Nvidia fell 2.9% and AMD 3.9%. Reported reasons for semiconductor weakness that day included reports of lower annualized OpenAI revenue, more than 50 billion US dollars of financing for Broadcom’s OpenAI work, Brent crude at 104 dollars, and US 10-year Treasury yields in the 5% range.⁸

Demand still needs confirmation. In Korea, HBM and substrates are the channels that benefit from this demand. The next checks are TSMC’s results on October 15 and hyperscaler results in late October.

CPU is ahead of the evidence, and in Korea the exposure is through substrates

The narrative is that agentic AI will shift the CPU-to-GPU ratio back toward 1-to-1 from 1-to-4~1-to-8. Intel said on its July 23 second-quarter earnings call that server CPU demand greatly exceeded supply.⁹ Nvidia gave an initial outlook for FY28 CPU revenue to more than double.⁶ Both companies have a stake in the narrative.

After Meta’s Muse agent product was introduced on September 21, AMD’s market capitalization exceeded 1 trillion US dollars, Intel rose 12%, and Arm rose 17%. But the report itself said it was not disclosed how much CPU Muse uses.¹⁰ From the September 23 close, Intel fell 13% and Arm 17%; Intel is 25% below its June high.

Korea has no CPU designer. Samsung Electro-Mechanics, whose main product includes FC-BGA for server CPUs, is the most direct link. There is still little basis for a standalone CPU theme; the exposure comes through substrates. The next check is Intel’s third-quarter results on October 29.

CoWoS bottlenecks have shifted from wafers to packaging

TSMC’s chief executive said on July 16 that packaging capacity was so tight it was limiting customer growth.¹¹ CoWoS monthly capacity was reported at about 130,000 wafers by the end of 2026 and about 260,000 by the end of 2028. These are supply-chain and analyst estimates, not TSMC guidance. From August, TSMC began outsourcing the chip-on-wafer step ahead of CoWoS to OSAT companies such as ASE.¹²

TSMC’s September revenue was 511.9 billion Taiwan dollars, down 0.6% month over month and up 54.6% year over year.¹³ Stock returns are TSMC +4% (a high on October 5, its highest since June 2025, and 6% below that peak), ASE +14%, and Amkor +1% (47% below its June high). Third-quarter results are due October 15.

There are no confirmed reports that a Korean company directly supplies CoWoS equipment to TSMC. The link is indirect, through Taiwanese back-end providers. Intekplus was reported to have passed quality evaluation for inspection equipment on a Taiwanese provider’s CoWoS line and to be preparing a definitive contract.¹⁴ Hanmi Semiconductor introduced a 2.5D bonder for the CoWoS process on June 30. This is the least volatile part of the chain, and the October 15 results will set direction for the broader chain.

Memory earnings are at a peak, but buying support is absent

Samsung Electronics’ preliminary third-quarter operating profit of 107.4 trillion won was up 20% quarter over quarter. Whether it beat consensus depends on the source. It exceeded LSEG’s 106.1 trillion won estimate but fell short of FnGuide’s 108.7 trillion won estimate just before the announcement.¹ The stock fell 2.4% on the announcement day.

Micron guided to next-quarter revenue of 61.5 billion US dollars in its September 30 results. The market expected 57~58 billion US dollars. It said supply and demand in 2027~2028 would be tighter than in 2026, and that most 2027 HBM volume had been negotiated with price increases.¹⁵ TrendForce forecast fourth-quarter contract prices of +10~15% for conventional DRAM and +15~20% for NAND, lower than its third-quarter outlook of +13~18% and +18~23%. Only HBM (+15~20%) and server SSDs are expected to see larger increases.¹⁶ NAND wafer spot prices fell 2.9% in the first week of October.¹⁷

Samsung Electronics is down 2.8%, and SK hynix is down 6.2%. SK hynix fell below its 20-day moving average on October 6, and Samsung Electronics did so on October 8. Micron gained 3.6%, SanDisk fell 7.4%, and Seagate and WDC fell 14% and 18%, respectively. Since September 17, foreign investors have net sold 13.3 trillion won of Samsung Electronics, its preferred shares, and SK hynix. Net selling since May is about 123 trillion won.

Share buybacks have absorbed these sales. Other corporations net bought 18.6 trillion won over the same period. As noted above, Samsung Electronics has reached its limit and SK hynix purchases have slowed. Earnings are at a peak while the buyer base is shrinking. SK hynix results and any additional shareholder returns on October 27, followed by Samsung Electronics’ final results on October 29, are key inflection points.

Korean packaging and OSAT have risen the most, making them hard to chase

The narrative is that as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix focus their lines on HBM, outsourced work is emerging in packaging, testing, and module assembly for conventional DRAM and NAND. Hanwha Investment & Securities estimated next year’s outsourced module assembly for Samsung Electronics at 2~3 trillion won.¹⁸ Industry reports and broker estimates point to Samsung outsourcing, but there is no confirmed contract disclosure.

The median one-month return for 13 OSAT stocks is 51%, and they are 22% above their 20-day moving averages. They have risen the most and are the most extended of all chains. Foreign investors net bought 183.1 billion won, while pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds bought only 13.5 billion won. Foreign investors are leading this chain.

Hanamicron is the name with confirmed earnings support. Second-quarter revenue was 683.2 billion won, up 101% year over year, and operating profit was 142.3 billion won, up 371%.¹⁹ However, Hana Materials issued 100 billion won in exchangeable bonds against 2.91 million Hanamicron shares, with an exchange price of 34,388 won. The current price is above the exchange price, so shares may come to market if exchanged.²⁰ Avoid chasing the chain as a whole; consider Hanamicron only on a pullback.

Korean materials have risen less, but expected returns are limited

The rationale is higher utilization and volume growth as new fabs come online. Price increases have been confirmed only at Soulbrain, following the completion of customer price negotiations, and Hansol Chemical, for hydrogen peroxide.²¹²² On October 6, Hana Securities said it preferred “back-end, materials, and consumables over front-end equipment that has already risen sharply.”²³

The median one-month return for 29 materials stocks is 25%. The process materials basket is 19% below its previous high, and its median price is 13.6 times 2027 estimated earnings. Pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds bought 155.1 billion won, while foreign investors sold 167.4 billion won. This chain saw purchases of 40.6 billion won in Soulbrain and 57.3 billion won in Hansol Chemical.

The median upside to average broker target prices is +23%. That is below Samsung Electronics’ +89%, making materials less attractive than the large cap. They are defensive laggards. KB Securities raised TCK’s target price to 360,000 won and expects third-quarter operating profit of 32.8 billion won, up 47% year over year.²⁴

Korean parts and equipment have many record highs on capacity expansion expectations

Consensus 2026 capital expenditure for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix has risen 34% and 51%, respectively, since the start of the year.²⁵

A September 28 report said discussions were under way to bring forward the first phase of equipment deliveries for Pyeongtaek P5 from the third quarter of 2027 to the second quarter.²⁶ Equipment orders for Yongin Y1 began in July, and cleanroom operations were moved forward to February 2027.²⁷

If this schedule holds, order disclosures from Korean equipment suppliers could cluster in the fourth quarter of this year and first quarter of next year. This is an estimate based on reports.

At the end of June, order backlogs were 634.6 billion won at Wonik IPS, 206.9 billion won at TES, and 233.6 billion won at Jusung Engineering, 2.1~2.4 times their levels at the end of 2025.²⁸ For testing, the rationale is increased test intensity for HBM4 and DDR5.

This chain has the most record highs. Of 16 stocks at all-time highs, 14 belong to this group, including PSK Holdings, DI Corporation, Exicon, TSE, Intekplus, Jusung Engineering, and KC Tech. The median one-month return is 26%, and the equal-weighted basket is 5% above its previous high. Flows were +359.2 billion won from foreign investors, +532.6 billion won from brokerage firms’ own accounts and ETF liquidity providers, -19.8 billion won from pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds, and -853.9 billion won from individual investors. Over October 6~8 alone, pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds sold 480.5 billion won.

The counterarguments are clear. Equipment deliveries will ramp up from 2027. Shinhan Investment estimates Wonik IPS’s third-quarter operating profit 22% below consensus.²⁹ Jusung Engineering posted an operating loss in the first half. Two customers accounted for 84% of 2025 revenue. Its market capitalization is about 91 times estimated 2027 operating profit, and the confirmed broker target price of 220,000 won from LS Securities is already below the share price.³⁰

The leaders are here, but entry should depend on the quality of a pullback.

Korean substrates are the new bottleneck, and domestic institutions bought the most

The narrative is that bottlenecks for AI accelerators and servers have shifted to substrates. On September 28, Samsung Electro-Mechanics’ board approved 6.78 trillion won in FC-BGA expansion, including 4.27 trillion won in Sejong and 2.51 trillion won in Vietnam.³¹

Reports say customers will support part of the capital expenditure and guarantee volumes.³²

Yuanta Securities estimates Samsung Electro-Mechanics’ third-quarter operating profit at 683.2 billion won, 9.7% above consensus, and 2027 operating profit at 4.89 trillion won, versus 2.21 trillion won in 2026.³³

Doosan disclosed 968.4 billion won of copper-clad laminate (CCL) capacity expansion. Simmtech is estimated to grow SOCAMM2 revenue from 151.8 billion won in 2026 to 321.0 billion won in 2027.³⁴³⁵

The median one-month return for 21 substrate stocks is 27%, but results vary widely. Samsung Electro-Mechanics is up 13% and LG Innotek 5%, while Daeduck Electronics is up 58% and Simmtech 42%. Samsung Electro-Mechanics is 32% below its June high, a closing price of 2.27 million won.

Pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds bought 809.3 billion won, the largest inflow among all chains. They bought 505.7 billion won of Samsung Electro-Mechanics, 151.2 billion won of Daeduck Electronics, 113.9 billion won of Doosan, and 85.1 billion won of LG Innotek. Even during the two sharp down days on October 7 and 8, the four stocks together saw net buying of 7.9 billion won, with no turn to net selling. Samsung Electro-Mechanics is the only supplier stock where foreign investors (+122.8 billion won) and pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds (+505.7 billion won) each bought more than 100 billion won while individual investors sold (-622.2 billion won).

There are counterarguments. Over October 7 and 8, foreign investors sold 167.4 billion won and brokerage firms’ own accounts sold 220.5 billion won of Samsung Electro-Mechanics. Individual investors absorbed 402.6 billion won as the share price fell 7.7%. Its price is 31~38 times estimated 2027 earnings, while broker target prices imply 45~58 times. Multiples are vulnerable when rates are in the 5% range. Simmtech has exceeded Daishin Securities’ 170,000 won target price, and pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds are selling. Daeduck Electronics is 32% above its 20-day moving average. LG Innotek’s third-quarter earnings are being reduced by foreign exchange rates.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics comes first, rather than the entire substrate chain. Wait for a pullback in Daeduck Electronics. Simmtech and ISU Petasys are being bought by foreign investors and sold by pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds, so assess them on the same basis as leading equipment and back-end stocks below.

Two camps buying suppliers are choosing different stocks

Cumulative net buying by stock from September 17 to October 8 shows a clear split among buyers. Amounts are in 100 million won.

Stock	Foreign investors	Pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds	One-month return
Samsung Electro-Mechanics	+1,228	+5,057	+12.8%
Leeno Industrial	-2,420	+1,744	+27.6%
Daeduck Electronics	-994	+1,512	+57.9%
Doosan	-3,076	+1,139	+7.6%
Jusung Engineering	+2,348	-905	+37.5%
Simmtech	+1,474	-731	+41.9%
SFA Semicon	+1,171	-870	+91.7%
Hanmi Semiconductor	+1,139	-480	+9.2%
Hanamicron	+1,041	+103	+43.6%

Foreign investors bought stocks at record highs or with sharp gains. Pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds bought less-risen large caps and earnings stocks. In this analysis’s supplier universe, Samsung Electro-Mechanics is the only stock both groups bought by more than 100 billion won each.

Individual investors net sold 1.43 trillion won of suppliers over the same period. This is not yet a market crowded with late-arriving individual buyers. Brokerage firms’ own accounts and ETF liquidity providers net bought 693.7 billion won from September 28 to October 8, but this money is hard to view as a durable holding because it includes firms’ proprietary accounts and ETF liquidity provision.

On October 7 and 8, foreign investors absorbed what pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds sold. It is too early to decide which side is right. Prices during pullbacks after Monday will provide the answer.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics is the first place to look; wait for a pullback in equipment stocks at new highs

The ranking below is not a trading recommendation. It condenses the evidence above into one line for each chain.

Rank	Chain	How to read it	Rationale
1	FC-BGA substrates (centered on Samsung Electro-Mechanics; wait for a Daeduck Electronics pullback)	First place to examine	Largest monthly cumulative buying by pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds, with no turn to net selling during the two sharp down days. Samsung Electro-Mechanics has risen less and benefits from compute, CPU, and memory demand. Estimates point to third-quarter earnings above consensus
2	Leading test and back-end parts and equipment stocks	After confirming a pullback	The genuine record-high group. But pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds net sold on October 7~8; stocks are +16~33% above the 20-day moving average, with 5~8% daily volatility. Waiting may mean missing the move; signals for that case are in the table below
3	OSAT	Hanamicron only, conditionally	The chain is overheated. Hanamicron has earnings support and a low multiple (13 times estimated 2027 earnings)
4	Materials	Lower priority	Pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds are buying, and prices have risen less, but expected returns are lower than for Samsung Electronics
5	Front-end equipment	After third-quarter results	Wonik IPS estimates are below consensus; pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds are net sellers; equipment deliveries are in 2027
Check	GPU, ASIC, CoWoS	Demand confirmation phase	TSMC on October 15 and hyperscaler results in late October
Check	Memory	Peak earnings, check flows	Buybacks nearing completion; October 27 and 29 are inflection points
Hold	CPU	Weak standalone entry case	Pullback after the September 21 surge; exposure comes through substrates

Stock candidates and conditions follow. Prices are October 8 closing prices. Conditions are an analytical framework showing the basis for judgment, not order criteria.

Stock	Close (won)	Position	Conditions to examine	What would break the thesis
Samsung Electro-Mechanics	1,546,000	10-day line 1.55 million, 20-day line 1.46 million, monthly high 1.699 million	In the 1.46~1.55 million range, downside volume falls, foreign selling stops, and net buying resumes from pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds. Confirm FC-BGA pricing and an earnings beat in late-October results, then reclaim 1.70 million	Two consecutive closes below the 20-day line coincide with a turn to net selling by pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds. Third-quarter operating profit falls short of consensus (623.0 billion won)
Daeduck Electronics	157,700	+32% versus 20-day line, 10-day line 138,000, May high 191,000	Pull back to the 10-day line (138,000~145,000) with lower volume	Fall below the 20-day line (120,000). Third-quarter operating profit falls short of Meritz’s estimate (73.9 billion won)
Intekplus	60,600	Record high 62,600 (October 2), breakout price 54,100, 10-day line 57,000	Hold around 57,000, then clear 62,600 with volume. 2027 EPS estimate +29%; reports of entry into a Taiwanese provider’s CoWoS line	Close below 54,100. No Taiwanese definitive contract confirmed by year-end
PSK Holdings	209,500	Record high 219,000 (October 8, long upper shadow), 10-day line 185,000, breakout price 174,000	Pull back toward 185,000 with lower volume	Close below 174,000
DI Corporation	42,150	Record high 44,400 (October 8, long upper shadow), breakout price 41,700, 10-day line 39,000	Hold above 41,700 and clear 44,400 again	Fall below the 10-day line
Hanamicron	51,200	Monthly high 54,500, June high 56,800, 10-day line 49,000	Hold around 49,000, then reclaim 54,500	Fall below the 20-day line (43,000). Exchangeable bond supply is confirmed

Stocks that are hard to chase include Jusung Engineering (above target price, -90.5 billion won from pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds), KC Tech (+49% versus its 20-day line), Exicon (+97% in a month), Hanyang Digitech (+108%), and SFA Semicon (+92%, 30 times estimated 2027 earnings).

Compared with Samsung Electronics, Samsung Electro-Mechanics has the earlier entry point

Item	Samsung Electronics	Samsung Electro-Mechanics	Daeduck Electronics	Intekplus
Price to estimated 2027 earnings	3.9x	31~38x	24x	17.5x
Upside to average broker target price	+89%	+56%	+28%	+41%
One-month change in 2027 EPS estimate	+0.1% (2026 is -5.8%)	+6.9%	+1.5%	+28.6%
One-month return	-2.8%	+12.8%	+57.9%	+46.9%
Foreign investors since September 17	-2.49 trillion won	+122.8 billion won	-99.4 billion won	+34.5 billion won
Pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds since September 17	0	+505.7 billion won	+151.2 billion won	-29.4 billion won
Daily range (20-day average)	3.6%	5.1%	5.4%	7.9%

Samsung Electronics is the cheapest relative to earnings, but has the weakest relative strength, flows, and earnings estimate direction over the past month. Samsung Electro-Mechanics is the opposite. Its multiple risk is higher, and its daily range is 1.4 times Samsung Electronics’. Samsung Electronics has the most upside to broker target prices, but those targets span 270,000 to 630,000 won, making the average less reliable.

What to watch from Monday and signals that would change the view

After the market opens on October 12, first check the US October 9 close and the opening gap. At the start of trading on October 9 (11:01 p.m. Korea time), semiconductors were roughly flat: SOXX -0.3%, Nvidia +0.1%, and Micron +0.3%.

Second, check whether stocks at new highs hold their 10-day lines and breakout prices, and whether volume falls on down days relative to up days. Third, check whether pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds return to net buying in suppliers. If net selling continues for two consecutive days, defer all second-ranked candidates. Fourth, check whether Samsung Electronics sees renewed net buying by other corporations and whether foreign selling eases.

Signal	Change in judgment
Stocks at new highs hold above their 10-day lines on declining volume, while pension funds, investment trusts, and private funds return to net buying for two consecutive trading days	Bring forward entry timing for the second-ranked leading test and back-end stocks
Samsung Electro-Mechanics’ third-quarter operating profit misses consensus, or an FC-BGA price increase is not confirmed	Remove substrates from the first place to examine
Fourth-quarter DRAM contract prices fall short of TrendForce’s forecast (+10~15%), or spot prices turn down	Lower the entire supplier group by one tier. Capacity expansion will slow first
Hyperscalers cut 2027 capital expenditure or credit spreads spike	Consider reducing exposure across the chain
SK hynix announces a new buyback on October 27 and Samsung Electronics increases shareholder returns on October 29	Large-cap flow gap closes. Memory’s relative disadvantage versus suppliers narrows

Date	Event
October 12	Korean market reopens
October 14~15	US September CPI; ASML and TSMC third-quarter results
Mid-October to early late October	Estimated timing for SK hynix buyback completion
October 21	Nvidia GTC Berlin
October 22	Bank of Korea Monetary Policy Board
October 27	SK hynix third-quarter results and additional shareholder returns; FOMC on October 27~28
October 28	Samsung Electro-Mechanics third-quarter results (calendar listing, unconfirmed); Microsoft results
October 29	Samsung Electronics final results; Intel third-quarter results
November 3	AMD third-quarter results
November 17	Nvidia third-quarter results

What could not be confirmed and limits of the calculations

Investor net buying is an estimated amount based on Kiwoom Securities data. The media tally of foreign net selling in the third quarter for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix (11.70 trillion won and 24.93 trillion won, respectively) matched.³⁶
Detailed investor flows for small caps are unavailable for September 10~16, so those dates are excluded from supplier totals.
All-time highs are determined using adjusted prices since August 2014. Stocks whose earlier highs were higher may not be filtered out.
Buyback execution is estimated from cumulative net buying by other corporations. Trades by other corporations are included, and no acquisition results report has been released.
Consensus is compiled by Naver and WiseReport. Small-cap estimates are updated infrequently, so “no change” may not mean there was no actual upward revision.
Broker figures were checked through media reports; the original reports were not accessible. Broadcom FY27 and FY28 figures and CoWoS capacity are reported estimates.
US stocks were assessed only by price because investor-group flow data was unavailable. September-October hyperscaler credit spread figures could not be confirmed.

Disclaimer: This material is for research and informational purposes. Stocks, multiples, and conditions are analytical examples, not a recommendation to trade. Readers should conduct their own review before making investment decisions.

Samsung Electronics announces third-quarter 2026 earnings guidance, 2026-10-08. These are preliminary figures, and segment results were not disclosed. Consensus varies by data provider. ↩︎ ↩︎
Samsung Electronics share acquisition decision disclosure, 2026-08-21. Planned acquisition: 53,285,968 shares, about 15 trillion won; acquisition period 2026-08-24~11-21. ↩︎
SK hynix share acquisition decision disclosure, 2026-08-19. Planned acquisition: 24,070,000 shares, about 40 trillion won; acquisition period 2026-08-20~11-19. ↩︎
Financial Services Commission press release on measures for single-stock leveraged products, 2026-07-16. The higher required cash deposit was scheduled for early August, and expanded trading units for November. ↩︎
Financial News tally of returns for single-stock leveraged products, 2026-09-26. ↩︎
Full transcript of Nvidia FY27 second-quarter earnings call, 2026-08-26. The company presented FY28 growth as an initial outlook. ↩︎ ↩︎ ↩︎
Broadcom FY26 third-quarter earnings filing, 2026-09-02. FY27 and FY28 AI semiconductor revenue figures were reported as management comments and are not in the filing. ↩︎
Wall Street closing report (republication of a Reuters article), 2026-10-08. These were several reasons cited in reports; their individual contribution was not measured. ↩︎
Full transcript of Intel second-quarter 2026 earnings call, 2026-07-23. ↩︎
Implicator.ai report on AMD crossing a 1 trillion US dollar market capitalization, 2026-09-21. ↩︎
Full transcript of TSMC second-quarter earnings call, 2026-07-16. ↩︎
Electronic Times report on expanded outsourcing of TSMC’s CoW process, 2026-08-04. ↩︎
TSMC September 2026 revenue filing, 2026-10-08. ↩︎
Asia Economy report on CoWoS back-end equipment, 2026-08-14. The customer name and definitive contract amount were not disclosed. ↩︎
Micron FY26 fourth-quarter prepared remarks, 2026-09-30. ↩︎
TrendForce forecast for fourth-quarter 2026 memory contract prices, 2026-09-30. This is a forecast, not realized pricing. ↩︎
TechTimes report on memory stock weakness, 2026-10-07. It cites TrendForce spot prices. ↩︎
Smart Today report on expanded OSAT outsourcing, 2026-10-09. It cites Hanwha Investment & Securities estimates. ↩︎
Job Post report on Hanamicron second-quarter results, 2026-09-30. ↩︎
Financial News report on Hana Materials’ exchangeable bonds, 2026-09-14. ↩︎
Financial News report on Shinhan Investment’s Soulbrain note, 2026-09-01. ↩︎
Newspim report on Hyundai Motor Securities’ Hansol Chemical note, 2026-09-18. The target price was lowered. ↩︎
MTN report on Hana Securities’ supplier outlook, 2026-10-06. ↩︎
Newspim report on KB Securities’ TCK note, 2026-09-29. ↩︎
Korea Economic Daily report on supplier ETF returns and capital expenditure consensus, 2026-10-03. ↩︎
ZDNet Korea report on Pyeongtaek P5 equipment delivery schedule, 2026-09-28. This is a proposal under discussion with equipment companies, not a confirmed plan. ↩︎
The One TV report on the Yongin SK hynix cleanroom schedule, 2026-10-03. ↩︎
Newspim report on equipment suppliers’ order backlogs, 2026-10-06. ↩︎
Newspim report on Shinhan Investment’s Wonik IPS note, 2026-10-08. ↩︎
Edaily report on Jusung Engineering shareholding changes, 2026-10-08. Customer concentration and results were cited in the same report. ↩︎
Newsverse report on Samsung Electro-Mechanics FC-BGA expansion, 2026-09-28. ↩︎
MTN report on Samsung Electro-Mechanics expansion, 2026-09-28. Customer support is reported, but the customer and amount were not disclosed. ↩︎
Edaily report on Yuanta Securities’ Samsung Electro-Mechanics note, 2026-10-08. ↩︎
E Today report on Doosan CCL expansion, 2026-09-18. ↩︎
Korea Economic Daily report on Daishin Securities’ Simmtech note, 2026-09-09. These are broker estimates. ↩︎
Financial News tally of third-quarter foreign net selling, 2026-10-06. ↩︎

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