Anatomy of the Rebound: Foreign Buying Came in Two Bursts, and the Same Two Stocks Changed Hands

Sun, 16 Aug 2026 20:10:00 +0900

Connecting context: The Second Week of August in Review noted that foreign investors turned to four straight days of net buying starting Tuesday. That’s accurate, but it’s surface-level. This piece works from our own aggregation, breaking down eleven trading days of flow since the low by investor type, phase, and stock, to look at the structure underneath: who sold, who bought, and why buying at one moment differs in character from buying at another, even when both count as net buying.

TL;DR

The bottom line first. From August 10 to 14, the KOSPI rose from 6,258.77 to 6,977.94, up 11.49%, while retail investors net sold around 7 trillion won over the five sessions and foreign investors net bought in the mid-6 trillion won range. Institutions were modest net buyers. [Fact: exchange and media aggregation, totals by investor type vary by aggregation method] This rebound is a large-cap rally in which foreign investors absorbed the profit-taking supply that retail sold.
But split the full period since the low (July 30) into phases, and foreign buying was not continuous. Foreigners bought in the 7 trillion won range in a single day on July 31, absorbing capitulation supply, then sold back in the 8 trillion won range during the early-August stall (August 3 to 11), and bought again in the 7 trillion won range starting August 12 once the inflation rally began. [Fact: own aggregation] It’s an alternating structure: absorb the low’s supply, sell back during the stall, buy again on the news rally.
This structure carries a methodological lesson. Cut the window from August 1 to 14 instead, and you get the opposite conclusion: retail net buying, foreign net selling. That’s because July 31 alone falls outside the window. Reading flow data is half about how you set the window.
The rebound’s buying returned to the exact same spot as the crash’s selling. Since the low, the top foreign net-buying names have been Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, together accounting for half of total net buying, and the two stocks also made up roughly 78% of the single day of buying on July 31. That is an exact mirror image of how foreign selling concentrated in these same two names during the July crash. [Fact: own aggregation] It is flow-side evidence for this series’ verdict that the decline was a positioning problem, not a fundamentals problem.
The direction of the handover in these two stocks is healthy. From August 10 to 14, in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, retail investors sold 4.6 trillion won, while foreign investors absorbed 2.15 trillion won and institutions absorbed 2.66 trillion won. Retail net selling in these two stocks accounted for about 65% of total retail net selling across the KOSPI. [Fact: own aggregation]
The caveats are just as clear. Foreign investors bought cash equities, but their cumulative August net-short position in futures was not fully unwound, and program trading was net selling. On the KOSDAQ, they were net sellers throughout the rebound. [Fact: own aggregation, public reporting confirms direction only] With cash strength, a futures hedge, and program-trading weakness all mixed together, it is too early to call this a full shift to risk-on.
The remaining checks are whether foreign net buying in cash equities holds up cumulatively, whether the cumulative futures short position shrinks, whether non-arbitrage program trading flips to net buying, and whether foreign ownership ratios in the two stocks rise. The last of these is still unmet. Despite the heavy buying, Samsung Electronics’ foreign ownership ratio is stuck at 46.70%, unchanged from the start of the month. [Fact: disclosure aggregation]
One more variable to flag before Monday’s open. Friday night, US retail sales fell 0.6% month over month, the largest miss versus consensus in 14 months, and the probability of a September hold rose into the 70% range. The US-Iran ceasefire extension remains at the agreement-in-principle stage past its expiration date, and Iran’s foreign minister said the two sides are not in negotiations. [Fact: reporting]

Key Framing

Even when the net-buying total looks the same, when the buying happened changes what it means. On July 31, foreign investors absorbed the supply that forced liquidation dumped into the market. In early August, they took profit on that position, and from August 12, they bought again in response to news on inflation and earnings. Read this alternation as one continuous buying streak and you overstate the strength of the flow. Cut the window starting from August 1 and you read the direction as the exact opposite. What is confirmed now is the symmetry: the same two stocks sold in the crash were bought back by the same hands in the rebound, and the handover ran from retail to foreign and institutional investors. What is not confirmed is whether this buying reflects conviction that has already shed its hedge. Futures and program trading will answer that question first.

1. The Surface of Five Days: Retail Sold, Foreigners Bought

Start with the numbers. From August 10 to 14, the KOSPI rose 11.49%, from 6,258.77 to 6,977.94. On Friday alone it gained 2.42% and touched an intraday high of 7,010.86, while Samsung Electronics closed at 274,500 won (up 2.43%) and SK Hynix closed at 1,645,000 won (up 3.26%). [Fact: exchange and media]

The five-day flow by investor type is where this piece starts.

Five days in mirror image. Retail selling and foreign buying face each other at nearly identical size every day; only Monday, when the rebound began, ran the other way. Own aggregation; the 10th, 12th and 14th match public reports, and for the 13th we use the value where most sources converge.

View as table

Date	KOSPI	Retail	Foreign	Institutional
Aug 10	+0.65%	+0.90tn won	-1.49tn won	+0.57tn won
Aug 11	+0.73%	-0.07tn won	+0.05tn won	+0.02tn won
Aug 12	+3.68%	-3.19tn won	+2.84tn won	+0.53tn won
Aug 13	+3.56%	-2.74tn won	+2.11tn won	+0.68tn won
Aug 14	+2.42%	-1.98tn won	+3.04tn won	-1.03tn won

The totals are approximately -7.1 trillion won for retail, +6.6 trillion won for foreigners, and +0.8 trillion won for institutions. Depending on aggregation method (whether off-exchange trades are included, how other-corporation trades are treated), weekly totals vary by outlet, from -7.4 trillion to -7.9 trillion won for retail and +6.6 trillion to +6.8 trillion won for foreigners, but the direction and magnitude agree. [Fact: media aggregation, cross-referenced] Notably, over the three days from the 12th to the 14th, foreigners net bought around 8 trillion won. This was not a one-day flash of buying. It was buying that built momentum, and the surface verdict, that this rebound is a large-cap rally in which foreign investors absorbed the profit-taking supply that retail sold, holds up this far.

2. Split Into Phases: Buying That Came in Two Bursts

But the picture changes once you start from the low. On a Samsung Electronics closing-price basis, the low came on July 30 (207,000 won), and the stock rose 32.6% over the eleven trading days from there to August 14. Splitting flow by investor type across this full period into phases looks like this.

Phase	Retail	Foreign	Detail
July 31 (single day)	-8.3 trillion won	+7.4 trillion won	The largest rebound day on record. After forced liquidation, foreign investors absorbed the capitulation supply. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix made up about 78% of that day’s buying
August 3 to 11	+9.9 trillion won	-8.9 trillion won	Seven-session stall. Foreign investors took profit while retail bought the dip. Direction reversed
August 12 to 14	-7.7 trillion won	+7.7 trillion won	Three-day inflation rally. The reaction function shifted, and the investor types reversed again

[Fact: own aggregation, both-markets basis]

Buying split in two. Since the bottom, foreigners bought in two concentrated bursts, on July 31 and over the three days from August 12, and in the seven sessions between they sold back roughly what the first burst had taken in. Retail moved the opposite way in every phase. Own aggregation, both markets.

View as table

Phase	Retail	Foreign
July 31 alone	-8.3tn won	+7.4tn won
August 3 to 11	+9.9tn won	-8.9tn won
August 12 to 14	-7.7tn won	+7.7tn won

Foreign buying was not a continuous flow across the eleven trading days. It was two concentrated bursts of buying with one round of selling back in between. The first burst was the single day of July 31, and the second was the three days from August 12. In the seven trading days in between, foreigners sold back roughly as much as they had bought in the first burst, and retail investors took the other side. Absorb supply at the low, trim it during the stall, then come back in once direction is confirmed: this alternation is a textbook flow pattern that has repeated across first rallies off a bottom.

This breakdown carries a methodological lesson. Cut the window from August 1 to 14, and the numbers come out to roughly +2.2 trillion won in retail net buying and -1.2 trillion won in foreign net selling, the exact opposite of the surface verdict. That’s because it excludes the single day of July 31. With flow data, where you cut the calendar decides half the conclusion. One person could say “foreigners sold in August,” and another could say “foreigners drove the rebound,” and both could be arithmetically true. The window used for judgment should follow the structure of events (the low, the stall, the rally), not the calendar.

3. Buying That Returned to the Same Spot

What foreigners bought is the second finding. Since the low, the top foreign net-buying names have been Samsung Electronics (about 3.1 trillion won) and SK Hynix (about 2.6 trillion won), and the two stocks account for about 48% of total net buying. Broaden the semiconductor group to include SK Square and Samsung Electronics preferred shares, and the share tops half. That’s an exact mirror image of how foreign selling concentrated almost entirely in these same two stocks during the July crash. [Fact: own aggregation]

This symmetry tells us something. This series has judged the July decline as a positioning problem, not an information problem. If the same investor type sold and bought the same two stocks, it is more consistent to read this as a position being unwound and then restored than as a fundamental reassessment happening in between. Because the reason for selling was not fundamentals, the reason for buying didn’t wait for confirmation that fundamentals had improved either.

Looking at the handover in these two stocks by investor type over the five days makes the direction even clearer.

The handover in the same two stocks. Over five days retail sold 4.6 trillion won of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and foreigners and institutions split the other side. Retail selling in these two names was about 65% of all KOSPI retail selling. Own aggregation.

View as table

Stock	Retail	Foreign	Institutional
Samsung Electronics	-2.70tn won	+0.95tn won	+1.91tn won
SK Hynix	-1.92tn won	+1.20tn won	+0.75tn won

In Samsung Electronics, while retail sold 2.70 trillion won, foreign investors absorbed 0.95 trillion won and institutions absorbed 1.91 trillion won. In SK Hynix, retail sold 1.92 trillion won, foreign investors absorbed 1.20 trillion won, and institutions absorbed 0.75 trillion won. Combined, that’s -4.62 trillion won for retail against +4.81 trillion won for foreign plus institutional investors, and retail net selling in these two stocks accounts for about 65% of total retail net selling across the KOSPI. [Fact: own aggregation] It’s a structure in which retail investors, who had built up positions through leverage and bargain buying during the sharp decline, took profit on the rebound, and that supply passed to foreign and institutional investors. As a direction of handover, this is healthy.

It should also be noted that handovers ran in the opposite direction too. Samsung Electro-Mechanics, which ranked among the top retail net-buying names (retail +0.38 trillion won against foreign -0.84 trillion won), and some small and mid-cap semiconductor stocks overlap with the top foreign net-selling names. And on the KOSDAQ, foreign investors were net sellers of about 1.7 trillion won throughout the rebound, with institutions and retail taking that supply. [Fact: own aggregation] Foreign investors’ August was a rotation out of the KOSDAQ and the periphery and into large-cap semiconductors, not a broader expansion of bets across the Korean market as a whole.

4. The Caveat: Cash Was Bought, the Hedge Remains

The reason it’s hard to call this buying a full shift to risk-on lies on the derivatives side.

By our own aggregation, foreign net buying in KOSPI 200 futures came to only 1,462 contracts from August 10 to 14, and the cumulative net-short position for the month, including the August 3 sell-off day, still stands at just over 14,000 contracts. Program trading over the same period was net selling of about 1.1 trillion won. [Fact: own aggregation, derivatives and program-trading data. Public reporting does not confirm the contract count] Media analysis points the same way: foreign investors are buying cash equities in size while combining it with futures selling to partially hedge market risk, and over the past month this pattern of flipping positions worth several trillion won on a single-day basis has repeated. [Fact: media analysis]

So the character of this buying doesn’t reduce to one thing. Foreign investors picked out and bought the large-cap names that had fallen the most, while offloading part of the index risk through futures, and in the process absorbed retail’s profit-taking and leverage-unwind supply. That’s different from a phase where passive money sweeps up the entire market.

Here is what needs to be confirmed before we can call this a full return to trend.

Confirmation condition	Current status
Cumulative foreign net buying in cash equities holds up	In progress. Three straight days in the 2 trillion won range since the 12th
Cumulative monthly KOSPI 200 futures short shrinks	Not met. Cumulative net-short position remains
Non-arbitrage program trading flips to net buying	Not met. Net selling for the week
Foreign ownership ratio rises in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix	Not met. Samsung Electronics at 46.70%, unchanged from the start of the month

[Fact: own aggregation and disclosures. Ownership ratio as of August 14]

The last line may be surprising. Foreign investors bought in the trillions of won over five days, yet Samsung Electronics’ foreign ownership ratio sits at 46.70%, unchanged from the start of the month. This could be a technical factor, such as an aggregation lag or a change in shares outstanding, but the cause is unverified. [Blocked: cause unverified] The point at which the ownership ratio is confirmed to actually rise will be the strongest evidence that this buying is a restoration of holdings, not short-term trading.

5. The Variables for the Next Trading Day

Here are the variables hanging over Monday’s open. Friday night, US retail sales for July fell 0.6% month over month, badly missing the consensus estimate of +0.1%. That’s the largest monthly decline in 14 months. That’s rate-friendly, and the probability of a September hold rose into the 70% range, but the caution this series flagged in early August, that once employment and consumption weaken too much, falling rates start to read as recession risk instead, was tested against real data for the first time. US equities saw only limited declines despite the retail sales shock. [Fact: reporting]

The 60-day US-Iran ceasefire has passed its expiration date and remains at the stage of an agreement in principle to extend, and Iran’s foreign minister said over the weekend that the two sides are not in negotiations with the US. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on merchant vessels are continuing. [Fact: reporting] The oil-price axis heads into Monday as a still-open variable.

The conclusion on flow is this. The first leg of the rebound was a genuine handover led by foreign buying of cash equities, and its direction matches this series’ verdict. But roughly half of that buying still wears a hedge. Confirming that the three follow-up indicators, futures, program trading, and the ownership ratio, shed that hedge is the task for reading the next phase.

Stocks mentioned in this piece are examples for analysis and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security. Responsibility for investment decisions and their outcomes rests with the investor. Flow data by phase and by stock is our own aggregation, combining Naver Finance’s investor-type trading trends, brokerage flow data by stock, and derivatives and program-trading data; it may differ slightly from the exchange’s official statistics, and the stock-level totals are meant for ranking and directional judgment only. Because investor-type figures for August 13 varied across outlets (foreign net buying ranged from 2.1 trillion to 2.5 trillion won), we used the value where most sources converged, and weekly totals should likewise be understood as a range depending on aggregation method. Futures contract counts and program-trading amounts are not confirmed by public reporting, so we note explicitly that these are our own aggregation. The low date is July 30 on a Samsung Electronics closing-price basis. Prices and flow data are as of the market close on August 14, 2026.

Investor Flows on Korea Invest Insights

Anatomy of the Rebound: Foreign Buying Came in Two Bursts, and the Same Two Stocks Changed Hands

TL;DR

1. The Surface of Five Days: Retail Sold, Foreigners Bought

2. Split Into Phases: Buying That Came in Two Bursts

3. Buying That Returned to the Same Spot

4. The Caveat: Cash Was Bought, the Hedge Remains

5. The Variables for the Next Trading Day

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